The government-backed securitisation scheme has helped turn Italian banks’ balance sheets around. But as Covid-19 support measures ease, NPLs are expected to rise again.
In April 2021, Italy’s NPLs totalled €52.1bn — the lowest level for more than a decade. GACS-backed disposals amount to €87bn and in June this year, the scheme was extended for another year until 2022. Further portfolio sales that did not make use of the GACS guarantee have also contributed to the drop on NPLs.
However, the economic impact of Covid-19 caused Italy’s gross domestic product to fall by 8.9% in 2020.
What awaits the Italian market in post Covid times? Despite the complexity of the this economic downturn consensus is the that the new NPE inflows will be between €80 and 100bn in the next 24-30 months.
How will the market evolve in the next few months and years?
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